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材料——从顺风到逆风

时间:2022-07-12 13:25:03 来源:网友投稿

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材料——从顺风到逆风

 

 G l o b al R e sear c h

 19

 A u g u st 2020

 EM

 S ect o r

 K e y s

 M ater i als

 –

 F r om

 tai lwi n d s

 to

 he adwi n d s ; U nde rw e ig h t

  C h i na " s

 cr e d i t

 e x pan si o n

 i s

 p e a k i n g ;

 supp l y

 d i sr up t i o ns

 may

 n o t

 b e

 su st a i n e d Th e

 re - ope ni ng of

 ec onom i e s

 a nd unpr ece de nt e d m one t a r y

 s t i m ul us

 s i n ce

 th e

 h ei gh t

 o f th e

  Co v i d-19 c r isis

  h ave

  prop el l ed

 EM

 M ateri al s

 s to cks

 s h ar p l y

  h i gh er.

  Pri c es

 o f

  s om e c ommod i ti e s ,

 s u c h

 as

  c opp er

  an d

 i ron

 o re,

  h ave

  exc eed ed

  th ei r

 p re - C ov i d-19

 pe a k s , but

  t hi s

  ha s

  b ee n

 pa r t l y

  dr i ve n

 by

  s uppl y

  di s ru pt i ons ,

 no t

  j us t

  a

  de m a nd

 r ec ov e r y . C hi na " s

 c r e di t

 ex pa ns i on h as

 b een

 key , bu t

 eas i ng mo men tu m ma y

 h ave

 p eaked . S t r u ct u r a l

 ch an g e s:

 C l e an

 e n e r g y ,

 r e cy cl i n g ,

 ch an g i n g

 m o b ili t y

 pa tt e r ns

 A

 s h i ft

  fro m

 M ateri a l

  t o

 I n tel l ec tu al

  i s

  one

  of

  t he

  Se ve n

 M eg atren d s

  th at

  w e

  s ee

  as b ei ng

 acc el erated

  b y

  th e

  C o v i d-19

 p an d emi c .

 Un d ern eath

  t h at,

  w e

  an t i c i p ate

  th re e maj or s tru c tu ra l

 c h an g e s : ( 1 )

 c l ean en er g y

 i s

 s et

 to

 red u ce

 d eman d f or th ermal

 c o a l after

  i ts

  p eak

  ex p ec ted

  i n

 th e

  n ex t

  th ree

  to

  fi ve

  years ;

 ( 2 )

  r ec yc li n g

  o f

  m et al s

 –

  by 2030, s c rap

 s te el

 may

 acc oun t

 fo r o v er

 40 %

 o f

 o v eral l

 s teel

 s upp l y

 i n Ch i n a

 v s

 20-25 % c urr e nt l y ;

 a nd

 ( 3)

  ch an g i n g

  m o b ili t y

  pa tt e r ns

 –

  ri s i ng

 p en etrati on

 o f

  5 G

  n etw o rks an d el ec tri c

 v eh i c l e

 s al e s

 s hou l d b e n efi t

 li th i um, c ob a l t,

 n i c k el , c opp er

 a nd al u mi n i um. Th at

 s ai d, th e

 ou tl ook fo r b attery

 makers

 i s

 c l earl y

 po s i ti v e,

 i n our v i ew , as

 w e

 fo rec as t th e

 s h are

 o f

 n e w

 en erg y

 v eh i c l es

 ( NEV s )

 i n to tal

 au to

 s al e s

 to

 qu ad rup l e

 to

 16.6 %

 b y 2025,

 w i th

  th e

  fi ve

  l arg es t

  g l ob al

  b attery

  makers

  c ap tu ri ng

 c 84 %

  o f

  th e

  market.

  I n c on tras t,

  w e

  ar e

  s tru c tu ral l y

  b eari s h

 on

 i ron

 o re

  medi um- te rm,

 w i th

  B raz ili an

  s up pl y ex p ec ted

 to

 rec o v er

 an d w i th

 th e

 i ron o re

 pr i ce

 w el l

 ab o ve

 th e

 c o s t

 c u rve.

 ESG :

 Ea r l y

 d ays ;

 a

 l o n g

 w ay

 aw ay

 f r o m

 ac h i evi n g

 c ar b o n

 n eu t r al i t y

 Re ce nt

  i nc i de nt s ,

 s uc h

 a s

  No ril s k

 Ni c kel " s

  fu e l

  s p ill

  an d

 V a le " s

  t a ili ng s

  d a m

 sp ill ,

 h ave h ei gh ten ed

 i n v es to r c on c ern s . Wh il e

 w e

 s ee

 s o me

 prog res s

 b y

 EM

 M ateri al s

 c omp an i e s on th e

 ESG

 fro n t,

 w e

 th i nk i t

 i s

 s ti ll

 earl y

 d ay s

 i n th e

 ESG

 i mpro v emen t

 j ourn ey

 fo r E M M ateri al s

 s t o cks

 an d th at

 th e

 p ath w ay

 to

 ac h i ev i ng c arb on n e u tral i ty

 i s

 un c l e ar.

 S t r a t e g y :

 U n d e r w e i g h t

 Ma t e r i a l s

 as

 d i ssi pa t i n g

 t a il w i n d s

 p r i ce d

 as

 p e r si st e n t Ch i n a" s

 c red i t

 ex p an s i on a nd a

 w eake r USD

 h ave

 h el p ed

 EM

 C yc li c al s , s u c h as

 M ateri al s s to cks . Hi s to r i c al l y , th e

 i mp ac t

 o f

 th e

 fo rmer

 fac to r l as ted

 fo r s ev eral

 mon th s

 ( F i gur e

 1 ). Th i s

 t i me,

 ho w ev er,

 w e

 do no t

 ex p ec t

 th i s

 te mp l ate

 to

 ho l d, as

 w e

 b el i eve

 al l

 tai l w i nd s h ave

 al read y

 b e en

 p ri c ed

 as

 i f

 t h ey

 are

 s et

 to

 p ers i s t

 s i gn i fi c an tl y

 l ong er

 th a n w e

 th i nk t h ey

 w ill.

 F i gur e

 2 be l ow

 s how s

 U BS

 a na l y s t s "

 t op s t oc k pi c k s . F i g u r e

 1 :

 C h i n a" s

 n e w

 TS F

 e x eq u i t y

 v s

 E M

 M at eri al s

  F i g u r e

 2 :

 M o st f a v o u r e d

 st o c k s

 800

 700

 600

 500

  P h ilip

 F in c h S trateg i s t phi li p.f i nch@ ubs . com

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 D an i el

 Majo r

 A na l ys t da ni e l .m a j or @ ubs .com

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 J am es

 K an

 A na l ys t j a m e s .k a n@ ubs .com

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 A n d r eas B o kke nh e u ser

 A na l ys t a ndr ea s .bokk e nh euse r @ ubs .com

 +1 -212-713

 9516

 Yon g - Su k So n ,

 CFA A na l ys t yongs uk .s on@ ubs .com

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 Ti m

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 S hi l an

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 + 27-11-322

 7302

  400

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 ₩270,000 24 - 62%

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 R$1 3.0 6.6 25%

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 P O LY

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  U BS

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 PI VO TAL

 Q UESTI O NS

 Q:

 H o w

 st r o n g

 has

 t h e

 r e ce n t

 r eco v e r y

 i n

 ma t e r i a l s

 ma r k e t s

 b ee n ?

 W e

  are

  s eei ng

 a

  robu s t

  Ch i n a -d ri v en

  rec o v ery

  v i rtu al l y

  ac ro ss

  th e

  bo ard .

 O ur

 v i rtu al

  Ch i n a

  tri p

 h as po i n ted

 to

 10 %

 y / y

 gro w th

 i n i n fras tru c tu re

 F AI

 i n H2

 2020, an d Ch i n es e

 prop erty

 i n v es tmen t

 i s

 s et

 to ac h i eve

 fu ll - yea r gr ow t h of

 7%

 i n 2020. I n K or ea

 a nd T a i w a n, s t ee l

 prod uc e r s

 ha ve

 be gun hi k i ng t he i r p ri c es , w i th

 P O SCO

 rai s i ng ex po rt

 p ri c es

 b y

 20-30 %

 fro m Ju l y . Co pp er

 an d i ron o re

 p ri c es

 h ave

 ral li ed a bov e

  pr e - C ov i d-19 l eve l s ,

 but

  t hi s

 ha s

 be e n

 pa r t l y

  dr i ve n by

  s up pl y

  di s r upt i ons , n ot

  j u s t

  a

  de m a nd rec o v er y . I n c on tras t,

 th ermal

 c o al

 h as

 l ag g e d th e

 c ommod i ty

 reb ound, p artl y

 attri bu tab l e

 to

 c onc e r ns a bou t

  I ndi a " s

  gr ow t h

 pr os pe c t s .

 W e

  s ti ll

  ex p ec t

  50 %

  gro w th

  i n

 NEV

  s al es

  th i s

  y ear,

  s uppo rted

  b y po s it iv e

 su rp ri s e s

 i n th e

 Q 2 res u l ts

 o f

 th e

 maj or b attery

 makers

 i n K o rea.

  Q:

 W ha t

 i s

 t h e

 l o n g e r - te rm

 s tru c tu ra l

 o u tl oo k fo r

 E M

 M a te ri a l s ?

 A s h i ft

 fro m M ateri a l

 t o I n tel l ec tu al

 i s

 on e

 o f

 th e

 Sev e n M eg atren d s

 th at

 w e

 s ee

 as

 b ei ng acc el erated by

 t he

 C ov i d-19 p an d em i c . Un d ern eat h th at,

 w e

 an ti c i p ate

 th ree

 maj or s tr u c tu ral

 c h an g e s : ( 1 )

 c l ean e ne r gy ,

 ( 2)

  r ecyc li ng

 of

  m e t a l s ,

 a nd

 ( 3)

  c ha ngi ng

 mo bi li ty

  p attern s .

 O n

 #1,

 c l ean

  en er g y

  i s

  s et

  to red u ce

 d eman d fo r th ermal

 c o al

 after

 p eaki ng i n th e

 n ex t

 th r ee

 to

 fi ve

 years . O n #2, b y

 2030, s c rap s teel

 may

 acc oun t

 fo r o v er

 40 %

 o f

 o v eral l

 s t eel

 s upp l y

 i n C h i n a

 v s

 20-25 %

 c u rren tl y . W e

 al s o ex p ec t mo re

  rec yc li ng

 i n

 a l um i ni um,

 c oppe r,

 a nd

 eve n

 c oba l t

  a nd

 li t h i um.

 #3

 i s

  dr i ve n

 by

  t he

  r i s i ng p en etrati on

 o f

  5 G

  n etw o rks

  a nd

 el ec tri c

  v eh i c l e

  s al es ,

 w h i c h

 s hou l d

 b e n ef i t

  li th i um,

 c ob a l t,

  n i c kel , c opp er

  an d al u mi n i um.

 Th at

  s ai d, w e

  th i nk

 th e

  ou tl ook

 fo r

 b attery

  makers

  is

 c le a r ly

 po sit i ve , a s

 w e fo rec as t

 th e

 s h are

 o f

 NEV s

 i n to tal

 au to

 s al es

 to

 qu ad rup l e

 t o 16.6 %

 b y

 2025, w i th

 th e

 fi ve

 l arg es t g l ob al

 b attery

 makers

 c ap tu ri ng c 84 %

 o f

 t h e

 market.

 I n c on tras t,

 w e

 are

 s tru c tu ral l y

 b eari s h on i ron o re

 medi um ter m, w i th

 B raz ili a n s upp l y

 ex p ec ted

 to

 rec o v er

 a nd th e

 p ri ce

 w el l

 ab o ve

 th e

 c o s t

 c u rve.

  Q:

 W ha t

 i s

 happ e n i n g

 o n

 t h e

 E S G

 f r o n t ?

 ESG

 c on s i d erat i on s

 h ave

 l ong b een

 a

 key

 h ead w i nd to

 th e

 c ommod i ty

 s ec t o rs , bu t

 rec en t

 i n c i d en t s , s uc h

 a s

  N or ils k

 Nic k e l" s

  f u e l

  s p ill

  i n

 l ate

  M ay

  an d

 V a le " s

 t a ilin g s

  d a m

 sp ill

  l as t

  y ear

  h ave

  h ei gh te n e d i n v es to r c on c ...

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