下面是小编为大家整理的澳大利亚新兴企业：8月份财报季最佳选择,供大家参考。
G l ob al Re searc h
13
Au gu st 2020
A u s t ra l i an
E me r gi n g
C o m p an i e s
Top
Picks
for
Aug ust
Rep orting
Sea son
Ea rnin gs
mom entum ske wed
to
downside
b ut re - ra te s
do minat e
Over
the
las t
four mon th s,
w e
have
seen
neg a tive
c on sen s us
EPS
rev is io ns
of
>- 5%
fo r 53 %
of
our c ov erage
u ni ver se
f or FY 22 E,
c ompared
to
13 %
re cordi ng revisi on s
>+5%. Pos iti ve
P/ E
rati o re - rates
h ave
been
prevalent , with
68 %
of
stocks
recordi ng a
re - rate
>+10 %
v s
9 %
rec ord in g a
de - rate
>-10 %.
Key
po si tive
e arni n gs
rev is i on s
( >+5%): KGN,
ADH,
NX T,
MP1 , APX
and
HVN
Key
negative
ea rni n gs
rev is i on s
(> -5%): PGL,
A D8 , GNC , JHC,
FNP,
CTD,
UM G,
BIN , ALU,
R EG,
APE , SHV,
B AP,
NWH,
ECX , IFM,
A SG,
GEM , EHE,
GUD,
AMA, F XL , IVC
and IEL
Key
FY 20 E
PE
r e - rates
(>+10%): PGL,
KGN,
APE,
ADH,
ECX , A SG,
GNC , BR G,
IM D, BA P,
AD8 , APX , CKF , FXL , GUD,
AMA, W EB , HVN,
JHC,
PRN , AL U,
UMG,
PM V,
CLV , CTD,
IFM,
NW H , BIN
,V RT
an d REG
. Key
FY 20 E
PE
de - rates
(> -10%): NX T,
MP1 , SR V
and
GEM
What
is
at ris k of
n ega tiv e
su rprise?
Neg ative
ris k to
resul t:
ALU,
EHE,
IVC,
JHC
and
REG
Neg ative
ris k to
outlook: ALU,
B IN,
CTD , EHE,
FX L,
IEL,
IVC,
JHC,
NAN,
PGL,
REG , S RV,
TGR
and
W EB
Double
negativ e:
ALU,
EHE,
IVC , JHC
and
RE G
What
a bo ut the
p ositive s?
Pos iti ve
ris k to
r esu lt:
AMA, APX , ASG,
BGA , B IN,
B RG,
CTD,
GEM , HV N,
IEL , NXT,
SR V
and
W EB
Pos iti ve
ris k to
ou tl ook: APX,
B GA,
B RG,
GEM,
HV N,
IMD,
MP 1, NWH,
NX T
and
PRN Double
Pos it ive:
APX,
B GA,
B R G,
GEM , HVN
and
NX T
Better
than
feared:
ASG,
BIN , C TD,
GEM , PGL,
SRV
and
W EB
What
stoc ks do
we
li ke
i n
202 0?
Across
the
UBS
Emergi ng C om pan ie s
coverage,
our key
Buy
calls
are:
APX , BAP,
CK F, ECX,
GN C,
HV N,
IEL,
NWH,
N XT
and
PRN.
Fig ure
1 :
UBS
Sm all
Cap Cov er age
Ke y
P ic ks & Se ll s
headi ng
in to
August
Reportin g
S ea son
Ti m
Pl umbe Ana l yst tim. plumbe @ ubs. com
+61 -2-9324
3726
Josh
Ka nnou raki s
Ana l yst j osh.k a nnouraki s@ ubs.com
+61 -2-9324
3736
Tom God fr ey,
CFA Ana l yst tom.god fr e y@ ubs .com
+61 -2-9324
3575
A p oo rv
Se hg al Ana l yst a poorv.se hga l @ u bs.com
+61 -2-9324
2715
A ryan N or ozi
Ana l yst a ryan.norozi @ ubs .com
+61 -2-9324
3173
Cissy Xu Associ a te
A na l yst ci ss y.xu@ ubs.com
+61 -2-9324
3609
Ch arl otte Tom s Associ a te
A na l yst cha rlotte.toms @ u bs.com
+61 -2-9324
2278
S t o c k
R a t i n g
T a r g et Me asu r e U B S e F Y 20
/ C o ns e nsus 1 H 20 E F Y 20 E R i sk
t o
r e su l t R i sk
t o
o u t l oo k
G u i d an c e A PX
Buy
$41.00 EBI TD A *
$47.8m $132.8m Sl t . Po s i t ve
Po s i t i ve
F Y 20 E
u/l y ing EBI TD A $125-130m. 1 H 20 E
EBI TD A m ar gin s
" mid- t een s " . B A P
Buy
$7.00 N PA T
$87.6m $88.0m Neu t r al
Neu t r al
F Y 20 E
N PA T
$84-88m. EC X
Buy
$2.05 EBI TD A $83.8m $76.5m R ep or t ing in N o v
R ep or t ing in N o v
N o f orm al
guid an c e.
GNC
Buy
$4.50 EBI TD A $128.4m $123.4m R ep or t ing in N o v
R ep or t ing in N o v
R ec en t
r ai n f al l t r en d s
po s i t i ve
f or F Y 21 E
c rop s eas on. C on t inu ed
s t rong oil s eed
c ru s h m ar gin s
ex p ec t ed . F Y 20 E
c ap ex
guid an ce
$35-45m. HVN
Buy
$4.35
PB T
$576.2m $599.3m Po s i t i ve
Sl t . Po s i t ve
N o guid an ce
pro v id ed . F Y 20 ( 11m t h s
t o M ay )
PB T
gro w t h o f
20 %. IEL
Buy
$18.20 N PA T
$15.3m
$46.5m
Po s i t i ve
Sl t . Neg ati ve
N o guid an c e.
N W H
Buy
$3.15 EBI TD A $241.9m $242.0m Sl t . Po s i t ve
Sl t . Po s i t ve
O n t r ac k t o hi t
t h e
pr e-COV I D -19 an noun c ed
guid an ce
( impli ed
pr e- AA SB 16 EBI TD A o f
$218m )
d es pi t e
undi s c lo s ed
COV I D -19 r el at ed
c o s t s . PR N
Buy
$2.00 N PA T
$107.4m $107.2m Neu t r al
Po s i t i ve
F Y 20 E
N PA TA
$106-110m
S ourc e :
Com p a ny , Fa ct S e t,
UB S
e s tim a t e s
*1H2 0E
- Dece m be r yea r- e nd.
ww w.u bs.com/ i nvestm entresea rch
Thi s
rep ort
has
been
prep are d b y
UB S
Sec uri ties
Au stralia
Lt d.
AN ALYS T
CERTIFI CATION
AN D
REQU I R E D
D I S C L O SU R E S
B E G I N ON
PAGE
18 .
UB S
do e s
an d s eeks
to
do bu s i nes s
wit h comp ani es
cover ed
i n its
re search
r eports.
As
a
resu lt,
in vest ors
shou l d be Automob il es
CK F
Buy
$10.65 EBI TD A $172.4m NA R ep or t ing in N o v
R ep or t ing in N o v
N o guid an c e.
NX T
Buy
$14.15 EBI TD A $103.7m $102.9m Po s i t i ve
Po s i t i ve
F Y 20 E
r ev
$200-206m; u/l y ing EBI TD A $100-105m; c ap ex
$340-380m. Austr al i a
Equ ities
aware
th at
the
firm may
have
a
conflict
of
i nteres t
that co ul d affec t
the
ob jectivity
of
t hi s
rep ort. In ve sto rs
s houl d co ns i der
this
Con ten ts Cha rts
Th at Ma tter
........................................................ 3
August
Re sults Prev ie w
S umm ary
..................................... 4
COVID -19:
I mpa ct
on
ou r
univ erse
..................................... 5
What"s
b een
t he
r eaction?
.......................................................................... 5 Key Picks
.................................................................... 7
Appen
( AP X):
Buy,
PT
$41.00
...................................................................... 7 Ba pc or ( BAP):
Buy,
PT
$7.00
........................................................................ 8 Collins
Foods
Limite d ( CKF ):
Buy,
PT
$10.65
................................................ 9 Eclipx
( ECX):
Buy,
P T
$2.05
........................................................................ 10 GrainCo rp ( GNC ):
Buy,
PT
$4.50
............................................................... 11 Harv ey
Norman
(H VN) : Buy,
PT
$4.35
........................................................ 12 IDP
Edu ca tion
(IEL) : Buy,
P T
$18.20
........................................................... 13 NRW
H oldin g s
( NWH) : Buy,
PT
$3.15
........................................................ 14 NEXT DC
( NXT ):
Buy,
PT
$14.15
................................................................. 15 Per en ti
Global
L td
( PR N) : Buy,
P T
$2.00
..................................................... 16
Ti m
Pl umbe Ana l yst tim. plumbe @ ubs. com
+61 -2-9324
3726
Josh
Ka nnou raki s
Ana l yst j osh.k a nnouraki s@ ubs.com
+61 -2-9324
3736
Tom God fr ey,
CFA Ana l yst tom.god fr e y@ ubs .com
+61 -2-9324
3575
A p oo rv
Se hg al Ana l yst a poorv.se hga l @ u bs.com
+61 -2-9324
2715
A ryan N or ozi
Ana l yst a ryan.norozi @ ubs .com
+61 -2-9324
3173
Cissy Xu Associ a te
A na l yst ci ss y.xu@ ubs.com
+61 -2-9324
3609
Ch arl otte Tom s Associ a te
A na l yst cha rlotte.toms @ u bs.com
+61 -2-9324
2278
Charts That
Matter
30
st ocks
had
a
PE
re - rat e
in
the
pa st four months
>+1 0%:
PGL,
KGN, APE,
A DH ,
EC X,
ASG,
GNC ,
BRG,
I MD,
B A P,
A D8,
APX,
CKF,
FXL,
GUD,
AMA, WEB,
HV N,
JH C,
PRN,
ALU,
UMG,
P MV,
C LV,
CTD ,
I F M,
NWH,
BIN
,V RT
and REG.
4
st ocks
had
a
PE
de - rat e
i n
the
pa st four months
> - 10%:
NXT,
MP 1,
SRV and
GE M.
Fig ure
2 :
Brea kdown
of
four - month
sh ar e
pric e
c hang e
to
c o ns ens us
FY22E
P /E s
(ordere d
by
re - rates)
140%
90%
40%
-10%
-60%
Re -ra te EPS
chg
FY 22E
S ha r e
price
chg
S ourc e :
F a ct s e t , UB S
e s tim a t e s , d a ta a s
a t
12/08/20. N ot e : P G L
re - ra t e
/ EPS
re vi s ion
= 298 %
/ -323 %
a nd K G N
EPS
r evi s ion
= 86 %
Fig ure
3 :
1y r
fw d
P/E
S m all
I ndus
& Lar ge
I ndus
(ex - Fin s)
Fig ure
4 :
P/E
S ma ll
I ndus
rel at ive
to
lar ge
In dus
( ex - Fin )
30
25
20
15
10
5 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 S m a ll
Indus tria ls
P / E
La rge
Indus tr ia ls
ex
Fin a nc ia ls
P / E S ourc e : F a ct s e t,
UB S
Fig ure
5 :
Pe rfo rmance
–
small growth
and
va lu e
1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
P / E
o f
S m a ll
Indu s tri a ls
r ela tiv e
to
La rge
Indus tria ls
ex
Fina ncia ls
Long- term ave ra g e S ourc e : F ac s e t,
UB S
Fig ure
6 :
Sm all
growth
rel.
t o
small va lu e
perf orm ance
190
170 150
130
110
90
70
50 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 S m a ll
" G row th"
S m a ll
" Va lue "
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
S ourc e :
F a ct s e t , UB S
S ourc e :
F a ct s e t , UB S
P G L K G N AP E ADH E CX AS G G NC BRG IMD BAP AD8 AP X CK F FX L G UD AMA WEB HVN JHC P RN ALU UMG P MV CLV CT D IFM NW H BIN V RT RE G E HE IE L BG A T G R ING TNE P ME FNP IV C S HV NAN G E M S RV MP 1
August
Results Prev iew
Summary
Fig ure
7 :
Aug us t
re su lts
previe w
summ ary (ris k vs
ma rket
ex pect atio ns )
AD8 Buy
$7.35
R e v e nu e
$30.3m
$30.8m
Ne u t r a l Ne u t r a l G u i d a n c e
w i t hdr a w n
( pr e v .
2 H 20 E
r e v >1 H 20,bu t
<
h i s t .
26-31 %
y o y
r a ng e ,
i mp li e d
F Y 20 E
14-20 %) .
F Y 20
pr e -r e por t e d
r e v
$30.3m
( +7 %
y o y ) .
A M A
Buy
$0.80
E B I T D A
$84.7m
$56.0m ^
P o s i t i v e
Ne u t r a l An t i c i p a t e
e xc ee d i ng
F Y 20 E
c on s e n s u s
E B I T D A
( w e
e s t i m a t e
c on s e n s u s
pr e -AA S B 16
$48.1m
v s
U B S e
$45.5m )
a nd
r e p a i r
v o l um e s
t o
r e t urn
t o
pr e - COV I D
l e v e l s
f rom O c t 20.
A PE
B u y
( U R )
$7.90
P BT
$88.7m
$99.1m
Ne u t r a l Ne u t r a l P r e -r e por t e d
1 H 20
P BT
$40m
( e x
J ob Kee p e r ) ,
ND
o f
$8m
( e x
f l oorp l a n )
a nd
$78m
o f
p e rm a n e n t
COD B
r e du c t i on s .
A P X
Buy
$41.00
E B I T D A *
$47.8m
NA S l ...
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