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能源过渡战略:越南低碳发展之路(完整)

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能源过渡战略:越南低碳发展之路(完整)

 

  JUL Y

  2020

 Energy

 T r ANSITION

 Str ATEGIES

 V ietnam ’ s

 Low

 Carbon Development

 P ath way

 A UTHOR S

 Nikos

 T saf os Lachlan

 Car e y

  About

 CSIS

  The

 Center

 f or

 Str ategic and

 International

 Studies

 (CSIS)

 is

 a

 bipartisan,

 nonpr ofit

 polic y r esearch or ganization

 dedicated

 to

 advancing

 pr actical

 ideas to

 addr es s

 the

 world’ s

 gr eatest challenges.

 Thomas

 J.

 Pritzk er

 was

 named

 chairman

 of

 the

 CSIS

 Boar d

 of

 T rustees in

 2015, succeeding f ormer

 U.S.

 senator Sam

 N unn

 (D-GA).

 F ounded

 in

 1962, CSIS

 is

 led

 by

 John

 J.

 Hamr e,

 who has

 ser ved

 as

 pr esident

 and

 chief

 executive

 officer since

 2000. CSIS’ s

 purpose

 is

 to

 define

 the

 f utur e of

 national

 security .

 W e ar e guided by

 a

 distinct

 set of

 values—nonpartisanship, independent

 thought ,

 innovative

 thinking ,

 cr os s-disciplinar y scholarship,

 integrity

 and

 pr of es sionalism,

 and

 talent

 development .

 CSIS’ s

 values work

 in c oncert

 towar d

 the

 goal

 of

 making

 r eal-world impact .

 CSIS

 scholars bring

 their

 polic y

 expertise,

 judgment ,

 and

 r obust networks to

 their r esearch,

 analysis,

 and

 r ec ommendations.

 W e or ganize c onf er ences,

 publish,

 lectur e,

 and mak e media

 appear ances

 that

 aim

 to

 incr ease

 the

 knowledge,

 awar enes s,

 and

 salience

 of polic y

 is sues with

 r elevant

 stak eholders and

 the

 inter ested

 public.

 CSIS

 has

 impact

 when

 our

 r esearch helps

 to

 inf orm the

 decisionmaking

 of

 k ey polic ymak ers

 and

 the

 thinking

 of

 k ey influencers.

 W e work

 towar d

 a

 vision

 of

 a

 saf er

 and more pr osper ous

 world. CSIS

 is

 r ank ed the

 number

 one

 think

 tank

 in

 the

 United

 States

 as

 well as

 the

 defense

 and national

 security center

 of

 excellence

 f or

 2016-2018

 by

 the

 University

 of

 P ennsylvania’ s “ Global

 Go

 T o Think

 T ank

 Index . ”

 CSIS

 does not

 tak e specific

 polic y

 positions;

 acc or dingly ,

 all

 views

 expr essed her ein

 should be

 understood

 to

 be

 solely

 those

 of

 the

 author(s).

 © 2020

 by

 the

 Center

 f or

 Str ategic

 and

 International

 Studies.

 All

 rights

 r eser ved

 Center

 f or

 Str ategic &

 International

 Studies 1616

 Rhode

 Island

 A venue,

 NW W ashington,

 D .C .

 20036

 202-887-0200

 |

 www .csis.or g

  Acknowledgments

  The

 authors

 would lik e to

 acknowledge the

 work

 and

 insights

 of

 the

 people who

 wr ote papers

 that

 we

 c ommis sioned

 or

 participated in

 our

 workshops.

 W e would lik e to especially thank

 the

 f ollowing

 people who

 wr ote

 papers:

 Le

 Thai

 Ha

 &

 David

 Dapice,

 F ulbright

 School

 of

 Public P olic y

 &

 Har var d

 University

  R achel

 Ros s

 &

 Evan Scandling , Allotr ope P artners

 Ha

 Son,

 Center

 f or

 Ener g y

 and

 Gr een

 Growth

 Research

 Du

 Huynh, Indiana

 University

 Andr ew

 Sc ott ,

 Overseas Development

 Institute

 This

 r eport

 is

 made

 pos sible by

 gener ous

 support

 fr om

 B P .

  About

 the

 Pr oject

  Ener g y

 T r ansitions:

 L ow- Carbon

 P ath ways

 f or

 Growth

 and

 Sustainability

 ex amines

 how developing

 c ountries

 ar e balancing

 their

 development

 priorities—particularly ,

 an

 ever- gr owing

 demand

 f or

 ener gy—with

 the

 mounting

 need

 f or

 carbon

 mitigation.

 Thr ough

 case studies

 of

 V ietnam,

 Ethiopia,

 and

 the

 Indian

 state

 of

 Gujar at ,

 the

 pr oject

 explor es the complementarities

 between

 development

 and

 low- carbon

 tr ansitions

 within

 the

 sectors of

 electricity

 gener ation

 and

 acces s,

 tr ansport ,

 and

 industr y .

 F urthermor e,

 it

 explicitly r ec ognizes the

 inher ent

 challenges

 and

 opportunities

 of

 a

 low- carbon

 tr ansition

 in

 an en vir onment

 that

 prioritizes

 ec onomic

 gr owth

 and

 r apid urbanization.

 By

 understanding

 succes sf ul

 ex amples

 of

 gr owth

 and

 mitigation,

 the

 pr oject

 will

 highlight wher e and

 how

 government ,

 industr y ,

 and

 society

 can

 cr eate positive

 f eedback loops f or str onger climate

 action

 and

 improved development

 outc omes.

 Additionally ,

 each

 sector

 in

 each

 countr y

 is

 c omprised of

 a

 unique

 c ombination

 of

 political,

 ec onomic,

 and

 social

 actors,

 which

 neces sitate

 polic y

 innovations

 specific

 to

 their

 c ontext .

 The

 pr oject

 will

 dr aw polic y

 priorities fr om

 these

 specific

 case studies

 and

 challenge

 the

 misplaced

 notion

 that gr owth

 and

 climate

 action

 ar e inc ompatible.

 This

 r eport

 is

 based

 on

 a

 workshop that

 the

 Ener g y

 Security

 and

 Climate

 Change

 Pr ogr am hosted

 in

 M arch 2020, f or

 which

 we

 c ommis sioned

 five

 papers

 and

 in vited

 a

 number

 of experts

 to

 discus s

 past succes s

 stories and

 the

 path

 f orwar d

 f or

 V ietnam.

  Contents

 K ey Findings

  1

 Back dr op:

 V ietnam

 in

 Context

  4

 s

  #1:

 P ower

 Supply Expansion

  9

 s s

  #2:

 N ear

 Universal

 Electricity

 Acces s

 and

 Gr owing

 Consumption

  12

 s

  #3:

 Acces s

 to

 Clean

 F uels

 and

 T echnologies

 f or

 Cooking

  14

 s

  #4:

 Enc our aging Renewable Ener g y

 In vestment

  15

 s

  #5:

 Ener g y

 E ffi cienc y

 in

 Heavy

 Industr y

  17

 Succes s

 Story

 #6:

 Improved Acces s

 to

 Urban

 Mobility

 Amidst

 Rapid Urbanization

  20

 About

 the

 A uthors

  23

 K ey Findings

  Over

 the

 past two decades,

 V ietnam’ s

 ec onomic

 gr owth

 has

 been

 r emarkable,

 and with

 that

 gr owth

 has

 come

 incr eased

 ener g y

 use

 and

 more gr eenhouse

 gas

 emis sions. Our

 goal

 in

 this

 pr oject

 was

 to

 ex amine

 the

 extent

 to

 which

 ec onomic

 gr owth

 and decarbonization

 (or

 avoiding

 carbon)

 c ould

 co-exist ;

 on

 a

 macro scale,

 V ietnam’ s

 experience

 would suggest that

 this

 is

 difficult ,

 at

 least

 at

 early

 stages

 of

 development .

 On closer

 inspection,

 however ,

 ther e is

 more to

 the

 story .

 Although

 it

 is

 true that

 V ietnam’ s ec onomic

 gr owth

 has

 been

 ver y

 ener g y-

 and

 carbon-intensive,

 ther e ar e also instances wher e the

 countr y

 has

 made

 gr eat

 progr es s,

 either

 in

 achieving

 lower- carbon

 outcomes or

 in

 avoiding

 higher- carbon

 path ways. F or

 instance,

 V ietnam

 power ed a

 r apidly gr owing

 ec onom y

 and

 achieved

 universal electrification

 by

 first in vesting

 heavily

 in

 h y dr oelectricity ,

 then

 in

 c oal-fir ed gener ation. Despite

 this

 partial

 r eliance

 on

 c oal,

 V ietnam

 has

 pr ovided good

 mobility

 in

 big

 cities

 with les s

 congestion

 and

 air

 pollution

 than

 is

 seen

 elsewre; it

 has

 improved acces s

 to

 cleaner cooking

 f uels,

 thus

 impr oving

 air

 quality

 (albeit at

 the

 expense

 of

 more emis sions);

 it

 has r educed

 the

 ener g y

 intensity

 of

 heavy

 industr y

 (if

 only

 slowly);

 and

 it

 has

 managed

 to attr act

 significant

 in vestment

 in

 r enewable power .

 In

 other

 wor ds,

 ther e ar e two sides to V ietnam’ s

 ec onomic

 stor y:

 a

 carbon-intensive

 one,

 and

 a

 low- carbon

 one.

 V ietnam’ s

 ener g y

 succes ses

 have

 diff er ent

 origins.

 Some

 have

 emer ged

 fr om

 str ong

 and technically

 c ompetent

 institutions,

 others

 fr om

 political

 c ommitment .

 Outc omes

 lik e incr eased

 power

 supply and

 electrification

 wer e high-level

 political

 priorities backed

 by

 capable

 institutions

 and

 supported by

 ample

 r esources.

 Other

 outcomes

 have

 been mark et -driven:

 the

 penetr ation

 of

 clean

 cooking

 f uels

 tr acks with

 rising inc ome

 levels,

 f or

 instance,

 and

 the

 r elatively

 positive

 mobility

 outcomes

 have

 persisted despite

 failur es in

 planning .

 In

 other

 cases,

 V ietnam

 has

 benefited

 fr om

 dynamics

 beyond

 its

 bor ders:

 it exploited

 the

 falling

 c osts

 in

 r enewable ener g y

 to

 attr act

 f or eign

 capital,

 both

 because local institutions

 had

 cr eated space

 f or

 such

 an

 opening

 and

 because f or eign

 companies

 and civil

 society

 nudged

 the

 government

 in

 that

 dir ection.

 All

 of

 these

 f orces,

 internal

 and

 external,

 ar e pr esent

 in

 the

 succes s

 stories discus sed throughout

 this

 r eport .

 In

 the

 r apid expansion

 of

 its

 power

 supply ,

 V ietnam

 adopted man y of

 the

 pr actices

 of

 its

 closest

 neighbors—such

 as

 r elying

 on

 c oal gener ation—while

 slowly implementing

 the

 mark et

 r ef orms r ec ommended

 by

 institutions

 lik e the

 W orld

 Bank .

 V ietnam’ s

 str ong

 institutional

 capacity allowed it

 to

 plan

 f or

 this

 dr amatic

 incr ease

 in

  supply ,

 while

 r ef orms to

 the

 structure of

 its

 power

 sector improved the

 financial

 ability

 of its

 state-owned

 utility ,

 EVN ,

 to

 mak e the

 neces sar y

 in vestments

 under

 that

 plan.

 Acces s

 to f or eign

 in vestment ,

 particularly

 fr om

 China

 and

 Japan in

 the

 field

 of

 c oal gener ation,

 also helped

 underpin

 the

 scale and

 pace of

 expansion.

 At

 the

 same

 time,

 V ietnam

 expanded

 acces s

 to

 electricity

 throughout

 the

 countr y

 to nearly ever y

 village and

 household.

 V ietnam

 r eached

 near-universal

 acces s

 by

 extending its

 national

 grid, r ather

 than

 through

 the

 off-grid

 solutions

 often

 touted

 as

 leapfr og opportunities

 f or

 developing

 c ountries.

 In vestments

 in

 grid

 infr astructure wer e made pos sible thanks

 to

 detailed

 planning ,

 the

 stable financial

 position

 of

 EVN ,

 and

 a

 political c ommitment

 to

 sustainable

 development

 through

 ener g y

 acces s.

 By

 c ontr ast ,

 V ietnam’ s

 incr ease

 in

 acces s

 to

 clean

 f uels

 and

 cooking

 technologies

 has lar gely

 been

 a

 story

 of

 decentr alized

 mark et

 actors

 satisfying

 the

 gr owing

 demand

 f or these

 pr oducts.

 In

 2000, only

 13

 percent

 of

 the

 V ietnamese

 population

 primarily

 used clean

 f uels

 and

 cooking

 technolog y ,

 a

 figur e that

 has

 risen

 to

 64

 percent

 today thanks

 to rising inc omes

 and

 well-distributed

 ec onomic

 gr owth.

 In

 particular ,

 the

 shift

 fr om

 biof uels to

 the

 use

 of

 liquified

 petr oleum

 gas

 has

 improved indoor

 pollution

 and

 general quality

 of lif e f or

 millions

 of

 V ietnamese

 people.

 Meanwhile,

 V ietnam’ s

 r ecent

 progr es s

 in

 scaling

 up

 r enewab...

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