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Equit y
R es ea r ch A mer ic a s
|
U nit ed
S ta tes
■ 4 Q
D e n ta l
P r ac ti c e
V o l u me ,
R e v e n ue
G r o w th
M o d e st l y
Im p r o v e s :
A cc or din g
to
our pr opr iet a r y
s ur vey
o f
75
U S
de nta l
pr a ct it ioner s ,
54 %
of
pr a ct i ces
ex perien ced
pos it ive r evenue
g r ow th
in
4 Q ,
r ising
1 . 1 %
( w eig hted
avg . ) ,
a
s li g ht
s equenti a l
a cc eler a ti on
f r om our
3 Q
s ur vey
( + 1 . 0 % ) .
N ew
p a ti ent
tr a ff ic
( + 1.6 % )
w a s
the
m os t
m ea ning f ul
dr ive r
o f pr a ct ic e
r evenues ,
f ol lowed
by
b r idg es
a nd
impla nts
( + 1.3 % ) ,
pr eventa ti ve
( + 1.0 % ) ,
a nd a cut e
visits
( + 1.0 % ) .
R es pondents
r em a in
opti m istic
on
NT M
t r ends
w it h
68 %
e x pect in g impr oved
pr a ct ic e
volume,
a
nic e
impr ovement
f r om
the
3 Q
ex per ienc e
( 64 % ) ,
w it h pr a ct ic e volume
e x pected
to
g r o w
+ 2.0 % ,
a hea d
of
the
3 Q
e x pe r ienc e ( + 1.9 % ) .
While
the tr ends
indi ca te
no
m ea ning f ul
t ur na r ound
in
denta l
dem a nd,
w e
a r e
encour a g ed
by
the s ta bil it y ,
providin g
a ba r om eter
of
per f o r m ance f o r
ou r
denta l
cove r a g e univer s e,
consisten t w it h
our
Q T D
c onver s a ti ons with
i ndus tr y
c ons ti tuent s
( s ee GN Y
Denta l
S umm it
note) .
■ E q u i p me n t — D i g i ta l
D e n ti str y
D r i v e r s
i n
I nn o v at i o n :
T he
NT M
outl ook
on
equipment pur cha s ing
w a s
es s enti a ll y
in - li n e w it h
3 Q ,
point ing
to
s us ta ined
hea lt hier
tr ends r ela ti ve
to F Y 18 / 1 H19,
a lbei t
w it h
pr a ct it i oner s
s ti ll
li k ely
w a r y
of
la r g e r
ca s h
outl a y s
on
br oa der m a cr o
conc er ns ,
r eimbu r s em ent
pr es s ur es ,
a nd
DS O
compe titi on.
We
m a int a in
ou r pos it ive
thesis
on
D e n tsp l y
S i r o n a
( X RA Y,
O P )
a midst
a
tur na r ound
s tor y
a s
2019 pr oduct
la unches of f er
ups ide
to
2020
e s ti m a tes
on
potent ia ll y
a cc eler a ti ng
t r a ct ion.
While XR A Y ’s
P r i m e sc an
of f er ing
c lea r ly
r em a ins
in
ea r ly
da y s
of
a dopti on,
w it h
pr ic ing potent ia ll y
a ct ing
a s
a
deter r ent
to
br oa der
m a r k et
penetr a ti on,
w e
a r e
opti m istic
on
it s r ecent ly
la unched
up g r a de
p r o g r am ,
w hic h
s hould
s pur
f ur t her
dem a nd ,
w hil e
a lso pr om oti ng
consum a bles
s a les.
I ts
O ne
DS
upg r a de
pr og r a m
enr oll ment
ha s
exceeded int er na l
f o r eca s ts
( 1.5 x
denti s t s
vs .
pla n) ,
a nd
br oa der
pr a ct i ti oner
r e cog nit ion
of
the pr og r a m
w a s
r es pect a ble
( 24 % ) ,
ba s ed
on
our
s ur vey ,
a nd
w e
view
g r ea ter
a w a r enes s s hould
s uppor t
g r ow th
over
ti m e .
F or
A li g n
Te c h n o l o g y
( ALGN ,
O P ) ,
it s
iTer o
r em a ined t he
lea ding
int r a or a l
s ca nner
( 16 %
of
tot a l
r es pondents;
48 %
of
dig it a l
impr es s ion
us er s ) . N ote,
A L GN
c onti nues t o
pr i ce
it s
i T ero
lower
t ha n
competit ive
o ff er ing s .
■ Cl e ar
A l i g n e r s – Few
S u r p r i se s :
ALGN
D o mi n at e s ;
D TC
Rem ain s
Co n c e r n
fo r P r ac titi o n e r s :
T he
m a jor i ty
( 61 % )
of
cl ea r
a li g ner
us er s
ex pect
dem a nd
to
r ise
over
the NT M,
la r g ely
d r iven
by
m a r k e ti ng
ef f or ts
f r om
m a jor
comp a n ies,
w it h
volume
a lso s uppor ted
by
a
r ising
ba s e
of
t r a ined
pr a ct it ione r s .
T ha t
s a id,
a
m a jor it y
of
p r a ct it ioner s r em a in
conc er ned
by
disr upti ve
d ir ect - to - consum er
( DTC )
conc ep ts,
li k e S mi l e D i r e c tCl u b ( S D C,
OP ) ,
a s
pa ti ents
s ee k
m or e
cost - ef f ect ive
s olut ions
w it h
DTC
a ver a g e
li s t
pr ic e
in the
~ $1 ,8 95
r a ng e
( ~ 60 %
discount ) .
N ote,
thi s
coul d
r epr es en t
a
ba rr ier
to
a dopti on
of S DC ’s
r ecent
pr a ct it ione r
s tr a teg y .
Mea nw hil e,
a cr os s
the
doct or - dir ect ed
m a r k et,
A L GN ’ s Invis a li g n
r e m a ins
the
cl ea r
m a r k et
lea der ,
w it h
52 %
of
our
cohor t
cu rr ent ly
o ff e r in g Invis a li g n
( 93 %
of
cl ea r
a li g ner
us e r s ) ,
w it h
> 70 %
of
ca s es
tr ea ted
w it h
it s
m or e compr ehen s ive
Invis a li g n
F ull
o ff er ing .
W e
cont inue
to
a w a it
g r ea ter
tr a ct ion
f o r
Invis a li g n Go
f or
G Ps
a nd
Ma ndibul a r
A dva ncement.
We
a lso
note
cont inued
enthusia s m
f or
XR A Y ’s S ur eS m il e ,
uti li zed
by
5 %
of
r es pondents
( 10 %
of
cl ea r
a li g ne r
us er s )
in
our
s ur vey ,
w it h r es pondents
hig hli g hti ng
i ts
qua li ty .
Rese ar c h
An aly sts
Er i n
W il so n
W ri g h t
212
538
4080
erin.w right@ c redit - s uis s e. c om
K a ti e
T r y h a n e
212
325
2713
k a t ie. t ry hane @ c redit - s uis s e. c om
Ha l e y
Ch ri stofi d e s
212
325
3720
ha ley.c hris t ofides @ c redi t - s uis s e. c om
Ma tt he w
Ur b i k
212
325
2152
m a tt hew . urbik @ c redit - s uis s e. c om
D IS CLOSU RE
AP P E ND IX
AT
TH E
B ACK
O F
TH IS
REP O RT
CONTA IN S
IMP O RT ANT
D IS CLOSU RE S ,
ANALYST CE RT IFICATIONS, LE G AL
E NTITY
D IS CLOSU RE
AND
TH E
S TA TU S
O F
NON - U S
ANALYSTS.
U S
Discl os ur e :
C r edit
S uiss e does a nd
s eek s
to
do
business w it h
compa nies
cover ed
in
it s
r e s ea r ch
r epor ts.
A s
a
r es ult ,
inve s tor s
s hould
be
a w a r e
tha t
the
F ir m
m a y
ha ve
a
conf li ct
of
int e r es t
tha t
co uld
Dental
U pd ate Sur vey
Sa y s :
De ntal
D em and
Seemingly
S tabl e
L if e S ci ence T ools
a nd
Di a g nos ti cs
|
C ha nnel
C heck
■ In tr o d u c i n g
Im p l ants
–
S TM N
o n
To p :
L a s t
qua r ter ,
w e a dded
s ever a l
ques ti ons r ela ted to
denta l
impla nts
to
ou r
s u r vey ,
a nd
w e
a ck now ledg e
g r ea ter
h i s tor ic a l
cont e x t
in
f utu r e s ur vey s
w ill
d r ive
m or e
m ea ni ng f ul
ta k ea w a y s .
Uns urpr ising l y ,
S tr au mann
( S TM N) br a nded
impla n ts
w er e
uti li zed
th e
m os t
on
a ver a g e,
r epr es enti n g
36 %
s ha r e
( vs .
25 %
in 3 Q ) ,
a hea d
of
it s
r eported
m a r k et
s ha r e
pos it ioni ng
( ~ 25 % ) .
T ha t
s a id,
w e
r em a ined encour a g ed
by
E n v i sta
H o l d i n g s ’
(NV S T,
N)
pos it ioni ng ,
w it h
pr a ct it ioner s
us ing
it s pr em ium
N obel
B io ca r e
b r a nd
a nd
discount
Im pla nt
Di r ect
br a nd
on
14 %
a nd
7 %
of r eleva nt
ca s es ,
r es pect ively .
Mor eover ,
w e
a r e
in cr em enta ll y
op ti m istic
a s
it
r ela tes
to
the pr os pect s
of
N VS T ’s
new
N - 1
i mpla nt
s y s tem
( a w a it ing
U S
r eg ula tor y
a ppr ova l) ,
a s
m a ny denti s ts
a w a it
impla nt
innova ti on
tha t
impr oves
ea s e of
us e a nd
enha nces
bioc om pa ti bil it y , pa r ti cul a r ly
g iven
the
new
s y s tem
a ims
to
s implif y
the
impla nt
p r oc es s
w hil e a lso
s upp or ti ng f a s ter
oss eoint eg r a ti on.
■ S u pp l y
c h ain ,
D i r e c t
D i st.,
A maz o n
U pd at e :
H e n r y
S c h e i n
( H S IC,
N)
a nd
P at terso n Co mp ani e s
( P D CO,
O P )
w er e
na m ed
a s
pr ima r y
distr ibu tor s
by
51 %
a nd
13 %
of r es pondents,
r e s pect ively
( vs .
38 %
a nd
18 %
on
a TT M - b a s is ) .
T he
va s t
m a jor it y
( 76 % )
is s a ti s f ied
w it h
it s
p r ima r y
distr ibutor ,
a nd
88 %
do
not
w or k
w it h
GPO s ,
a n
uns urpr ising dy na m ic
( dif f er s
m ea ning f ul ly
f r om
the
A ni m a l
Hea lt h
m a r k et) .
While
A m a zon
penetr a ti on r em a ins
a
que s ti on
f or
denta l
distr ibutor s ,
the
m a jor it y
of
pr a ct it ioner
A m a zon
pur cha s es today
ar e r ela ted
to
of f ic e s uppli es
( 36 % ) ,
w it h
only
7 %
o f
s ta nda r d
m edic a l
pr oduct s
( e. g. , g loves,
cot ton
ba ll s )
pu r cha s ed
t hr oug h
the
e - c ommer ce
g iant.
Mor eover ,
4 %
( vs .
6 %
in 3 Q)
of
denta l - s peci f ic
consum a bles
a r e
pur cha s ed
thr oug h
A m a zon
today ,
w hi c h
is
onl y ex pected
to
g r ow
to
7 %
in
3 - 5
y ea r s
ba s ed
on
our
cohor t .
In
te r m s
of
dir e ct
distr ibu ti on, r es pon dents
cur r entl y
pur cha s e
7 %
of
consum a bles
( 11 %
of
equipment)
di r ect
f r om m a nu f a ct ur er s ,
w it h
24 %
a nd
19 %
of
r es pondents
ex pect ing
to
pu r cha s e
m or e consum a ble s
a nd
equipment,
r es pect ively ,
di r ect l y
f r om
m a nuf a ct ur er s
over
the
ne x t
twelve m onths,
a
tr end
tha t
m a y
cont i nue
a s
m a nuf a ct ur er s
f ur ther
in ves t
in
thei r
int er na l
s ales ef f or ts,
i ncl udin g
bot h
XR A Y
a nd
N VS T .
De nta l
Sur vey
T ak eawa ys
We
comm iss ioned
a
s ur vey
of
75
pr a ct ic ing
dent ists
disper s ed
a cr os s
23
s ta tes
in
the
U .S ., w it h
the
hig hes t
number
of
r es pon s es
in
C a li f or nia
( 15 ) ,
N ew
Y or k
( 10 ),
a nd
F lor ida
( 9 ) .
O ur r es pondents
r a ng e
a cr os s
a
number
of
s peci a lt ies
inc ludi n g
g e ner a l
denti s t
( 43 ) ,
pe r iodont ist s ( 16 ) ,
or thodont ist s
( 6 ) ,
p...
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