下面是小编为大家整理的美国大型银行业：2020会议总结2.0版（全文完整）,供大家参考。
al n
r
te
n
I
-
d e
t
c
i
tr s
Re
C ORE
U.S.
La rg e - Ca p
Ba nks
2020
Confere nce
Recap
Ve rsion
2.0
We
a re
i n
the
m i dst
o f
ho sti ng
ou r
18 th
An nu a l
G l ob a l
F i n a n c i a l
Serv i c es Con f erenc e,
wh i c h
i n c l ud es 21
o f
the
22
l a r g es t
U.S.
b a n k s,
a ll
sending
a t
l ea st
thei r CE O/CFO/COO
( 34
U.S.
b a n k s
i n
a ll ) .
G e n erally
s pe aki ng ,
at
leas t
for
ye st er da y , e n c ou r aging
as s e t
qu ality
m etri c s
( l owe r
than
e xpe c te d
N C O s ,
s m aller
i n c rease s
i n c las s i f ie d
l o an s ,
s u cc e ss fu l
d e f erral
pr og r ams ,
mu c h
le ss
or
n o
AC L
bu il d
for
3 Q 20 ) ,
b e tt er
than
e xpe c te d
f ee
i n c om e
tre nds
( tr ad i ng ,
mor tgage ,
I B
f ee s ,
s er v e
c h ar g e s ,
I NDU S T RY
UPD A T E
U . S .
La r g e - C ap
Ba nk s PO SI TI V E Unc hang e d
U . S .
La r g e - C ap
Ba nk s J a s o n
M .
Goldb e r g ,
C FA
+ 1
212
526
8580
E qu ity
R e s ear c h
16
S e p te mb e r
2020
pa y m e n t
f ee s ,
a ss e t/ w eal th
man age m e n t
all
tre nding
i n
t h e
ri gh t
di re c ti on ) ,
re c or d depos i t
le v el s
( as
w ell
a s
a
de c li n e
i n
rate
pa i d
to
b el ow
th e
pr i o r
Z I RP
c y c le )
an d
a c on ti nu e d
e mph asi s
on
e xp e n s e s
( dig itizati on ,
b r an c h
c l osu re s ,
R/ E
ri gh ts i zi ng ;
th ou gh n ear - ter m
h e ad w i n d
to
s u ppo r t
i n c rea s e d
f ee
i n c om e )
appe are d
to
b e
ove r s had owed b y
n e t
i n tere st
i n c om e
pr e ss u re
( s l ugg i s h
l oan
v olum e ,
i n c rease d
M B S
p re pa y m e n t pr e m i um
amo rtiza t i on )
an d
a
l ac k
of
n ear - ter m
c ap ital
re tu r n
( n o
c larity
on
CC AR
2 . 0 ) .
Ou r
To p
10
ma cro s
t a k eaway s
to
d ate i n c l ud e:
1. M or e
ban ks
l owe re d
t h eir
n ear - ter m
n e t
i n tere st
i n c om e
ou tl ook
than
rai s e d
i t.
W h ile FI TB ,
H B AN
an d
ALLY
talke d
u p
n ear - ter m
e xpe c tati on s ,
W FC ,
JPM ,
B AC ,
PNC
an d
BK w ere
mor e
c au ti ou s .
2. Loan
g r owt h
appe ar s
s l ugg i s h
de s pi t e
c on s um er
ou tpac i ng
c om m er c ial .
3. Depos i t
g r o w th
c on ti nu e s
to
e xc ee d
e xp e c tati on s ,
de s pi t e
a
fu r th er
re du c ti on
i n
rate s pa i d.
Sev eral
b elie v e
depos i t
c os ts
c an
f all
b el ow
th e
pr i or
Z I RP
c y c le .
4. Sti ll ,
st r on g
depos i t
g r owt h
i s
e xpe c t e d
to
re s u l t
i n
ele v ate d
li qu i di ty
po s iti on s , re du c i ng
n ear - ter m
n e t
i n tere st
m ar g i n s .
I n c rease d
M B S
pr e pa y m e n t
pr e m i um amo rtizati on
i s
al s o
w ei gh i ng .
5. Fe e
i n c om e
tre nds
e xpe c t e d
to
b e
s ou n d
n ear - ter m ,
w i th
s e v eral
areas
b e tt er
than e xpe c te d
( tr ad i ng ,
I B ,
mortgag e
plu s
s er v i c e
c h ar g e ,
c ar d
f ee s
c om i ng
bac k) .
6. G i v e n
th e
p r os p e c ts
of
a
prol on g e d
l ow
rate
e n v ir on m e n t,
mos t
appe are d
f oc u s e d
on e xpe n s e s .
St ill ,
n ear - ter m ,
i n c rease d
f ee
i n c om e
c ou l d
c reate
u pw ar d
pr e ss u re .
7. Loan
l os s e s
re m ai n
at
relati v ely
l ow
le v el s
de s pi t e
th e
p andem i c ,
w h ile
pa y m e n t def erral
u pd ate s
w ere
g e n erally
pos iti v e .
8. AC L
bu il d s
i n
3 Q 20
s h ou l d
b e
mu c h
mor e
m od e st
than
1 H 20
or
n on - existe n t.
JPM , B AC ,
W FC ,
PNC ,
FI TB ,
an d
K E Y
all
talke d
to
relati v ely
n o
e xpe c te d
c hang e
i n
A C L
n ear - ter m .
S till ,
C ,
TFC
C M A,
an d
H B AN
i mpl ie d
th ey
c ou l d
s ee
fu r th er
i n c rease s .
9. W h ile
th ere
s till
s ee m s
to
b e
un c ertai n ty
w i th
re s pe c t
to
CC AR
2 . 0 ,
th ere
i s
a
d e s ire for
man y
to
re s tar t
s h are
re pu r c h ase
ASAP.
A l s o,
ban k
M & A
re m ai n s
a
s e c u lar
t re n d.
10. Th e
re gu lat or y / le g al
e n v ir o nm e n t
c on ti nu e s
to
i mpa c t
ban ks .
j aso n. g o l db e r g @ b ar c lays . co m BC I,
US
I nna
Bl y akhe r
+ 1
212
526
3904
inna. b l y akhe r @ b a r c lays . co m BC I,
US
M att he w
Kessel haut
+ 1
212
526
0181
m att he w.kessel haut @ b ar c lays . co m BC I,
US
E ug e ne
Ko y s m an
+ 1
212
526
0971
E ug e ne . Ko y s man@ba r c lays . co m BC I,
US
Br i an
M o r t o n,
C F A
+ 1
212
526
2163
b r i an. m o r t on@ b ar c lays . co m BC I,
US
Bar c lay s
C a p i t al
I n c .
a n d / o r
o n e
o f
i ts
a ff ilia t e s
do e s
a n d
s ee ks
t o
do
bu s i n e ss
w i t h c o m p a n ie s
c o v ere d
i n
i ts
re s ear c h
re po r ts .
A s
a
re s u l t ,
i n v e st o r s
s h o u l d
b e
a w are
t h a t
t h e f ir m
m ay
h a v e
a
c o nf li c t
o f
i n t ere st
t h a t
c o u l d
a ff e c t
t h e
o b j e c t i v i t y
o f
t h i s
re po r t .
I n v e st o r s s h o u l d
c o n s i d er
t h i s
re po r t
a s
o n ly
a
s i ng le
f a c t o r
i n
m a k i ng
t h eir
i n v e st m e n t
d e c i s i o n .
P L E A S E
S EE
A N A L Y S T
C E R T I F I C A T I O N ( S )
A ND
I M PO R T A N T
D I S CL O S U R E S
BE G I NN I N G
O N
P A G E
47 .
O v e rv ie w
At
D ay 2
o f
ou r
18th
An nu a l
G l ob a l
Fi n a n c i a l
Serv i c es Con f erenc e yeste rda y ,
we h ea r d f ro m J P M
( C FO ) ,
BA C
( C E O ) ,
BK
( C E O
&
C FO ) ,
NT R S
( C E O
&
C FO ) ,
USB
( C E O
&
C FO ) ,
P NC ( C E O
&
C FO ) ,
C O F
( C E O
&
CF O ) ,
T F C
( C E O
&
C FO ) ,
RF
( C E O
&
C FO ) ,
C F G
( C E O ) ,
ZI O N
( C OO ) ,
an d
A LLY
( C FO ) .
Th i s
foll owed
Da y
1 ,
w h i c h
i n c l ude d
C
( C FO ) ,
W F C
( C FO ) ,
ST T
( C E O
&
C FO ) ,
F I T B
( C E O
&
C FO ) ,
KEY
( C E O
&
C FO ) ,
HBA N
( C FO
e t
al ) ,
an d
C MA
( C E O ,
C FO ,
e tc . ) .
Toda y ,
w e
w ill
h ear
f r o m
MS
( C FO )
an d
MT B
( C E O
&
C FO ) ,
in
addi ti on
to
hos t i ng pan el s
on
M & A ,
c ap ital ,
pol iti c s ,
th e
e c onom y ,
th e
re gu lat or y
bac kdr op,
ac c ou n ti ng ,
an d b al an c e
s h ee t
man age m e n t.
Th ere
i s
al s o
f i n te c h
tr ac k
w i th
24
pub li c
an d
pr i v ate c om pan ie s
c on du c ti ng
pr e s e n tati on s
an d
pan el s .
Bel o w ,
w e
re c ap
t h e
g e n eral
i ndu s try th e m e s
to
d ate ,
as
w ell
a s
p r ovi de
qu i c k
c om pan y
re c ap s
f r om
ye s ter da y ’s
p re s e n tati on s . Fo r
M ond ay ’ s
pr esenta ti on
summa ri es
se e:
2020
C onfe r e nce
Re cap
f o r
Day
O ne ( 9 / 15 / 20 ) .
Genera ll y spea k i ng ,
a t
l ea st
f o r
yeste rda y ,
encourag i ng
a ss et qu a li ty
met ri c s
( l o we r than
expec te d
N COs ,
s ma ll er
i n c rease s
i n
c l a ss i f i ed l o a n s,
su cc es s f u l
deferra l
pr og ram s , m u c h
l es s
o r
no
ACL
bu il d
f o r
3Q20 ) ,
b et t er
than
expec te d
f ee i n c o me trends
( trad i ng , m o rtg a g e,
I B f ee s,
se rv e c h a r g es ,
paym ent
f ee s,
a ss et /wea l th
ma n a g em ent
a ll
trend i ng i n
the
ri gh t
d i rec t i on ) ,
re c o rd
depo sit
l ev els
(a s
we ll
a s
a dec li n e i n
rat e pa i d
to
below the
pr i o r
Z I R P
c y c l e)
a nd
a
c on ti nu ed
em ph a s i s
on
expen se s
( d i g i t i za ti on ,
branch c l osur es ,
R /E
ri gh tsi zing ;
though
n ea r- te rm
h ea d wi nd
to
suppo rt
i n c rease d
f ee i n c o me) a pp ea red
to
b e o v ershado we d
b y n et i n te rest
i n c o me pr e ssure
( sl ugg i sh
l o a n
v o l u m e, i n c rease d
M B S
pr epaym ent
pr em i u m
am o rti za ti on )
a nd
a
l a c k
o f
n ea r- te rm
c a pi ta l return
( sti ll
no
c l a r i ty
on
CC AR
2.0) .
T op
10
Ma c ro
T a ke a way s
to
D a te
1.
M or e
ba n ks
lowe r e d
thei r
n ea r - t er m
n et i n t erest
i n c o me
o u tlo o k
tha n ra i s ed
i t.
FI TB
( depos i t
rate
c u ts ,
a
b i t
b e tt er
pe r forman c e
i n
c om m er c ial
c oupon s ) ,
H B AN
( h i gh er than
e xpe c te d
ear n i ng
as s e ts )
an d
ALLY
( auto
yiel d
pi c k- u p,
depos i t
c os t
re du c ti on )
talke d u p
n ear - ter m
n e t
i n tere st
i n c om e
e xpe c ta t i on s ,
w h ile
TFC
an d
U SB
reiterate d
n ear -t er m tre nds
( th ou gh
U S B
w a s
c au ti ou s
on
4 Q 20 / 2021 ) .
Sti ll ,
W FC
( l oan
g r owt h
a
li tt le
w eaker than
pr e v i ou s ly
e xpe c te d ,
M B S
pr e pa y m e n t
pr e m i um
amo rtizati on ) ,
STT
( l ow er
rate s , ac c elerate d
pr e m i um
amo rtizati on ) ,
B AC
( c om m er c ial
pa y dow n s ,
h i gh er
pr e m i um amo rtizati on ) ,
JPM
( h i gh er
p ay m e n t
rate s
i n
c ar d ,
f as t er
mor tgage
pr e pa y )
an d
PNC ( pr e ss u re d
l oan
g r owt h )
all
l o w ere d
n ear -t er m
gu i dan c e .
BK
s ai d
i t
e xpe c ts
N II
to
b e
dow n 11 %
i n
3 Q 20 ,
th e
w or s e
e n d
o f
i ts
8 - 11 %
gu i dan c e ,
w h ile
NT RS
rei t erate d
i ts
e xpe c tati on s of
dow n
13 - 16 % .
Looking
ou t,
BK
e xp e c ts
anoth er
~5 . 5 %
de c li n e
i n
4 Q 20
b e for e s ta b ili z i ng ,
w h ile
N TRS
b elie v e s
s ta b ility
i s
po ss i b le
i n
4 Q 20 .
St ill ,
oth er s
talke d
to re s er v ati on
abou t
th e
2021
ou tl ook
for
n e t
i n tere st
i n c om e / n e t
i n tere st
m ar g i n ,
re f le c ti ng pr e ss u re d
s e c u rity
portfo li o
rei n v e s tm e n t
rate s .
2.
Lo a n
g ro w th
ap pea r s
s l u gg i s h
de s pi t e
c o n s u m er
o utpac i n g
c om me r c i a l . O n
th e
c om m er c ial
s i de
( C & I
an d
C RE ) ,
ac c e ss
to
c ap ital
m arke ts
h as
w ei gh e d...