下面是小编为大家整理的冠状病毒：短暂剧烈震动，还是破坏复苏最后一根稻草（全球宏观策略）,供大家参考。
Contents G lobal
e c onomi c ou t loo k: Peering
t hrough
t he
c orona v iru s f og
3
Uni te d
St a tes: Th e
durable
e x pan s ion
s hould
m arch
on
10
Canada : W ea k a ctiv i ty s hould
persi st in
2020
15
China : M ore
st imulu s t o
c ome
on
s o ft ening
growth
20
Euro z one : Re c o v ery require s c on t inued
poli cy s uppo rt
24
J apan : Vola ti li ty c on ti nue s
28
In dia : Ex pe ct a
dela y ed , gradual
re c o v ery
32
Au stra lia : Rolling
wi th t he
pun c he s
35
New
Z ealand : No rth ern
e x po s ure
39
Gl obal
in ter e st ra te ou t loo k: A nervou s wai t
42
FX ou tl oo k: Th e
c oming
s low
bleed
f or t he
US
dollar
45
O il
and
na t ural
ga s ou t loo k: V ola ti li ty in
an
age
o f ample
s uppl y
49
Metals and bulk commodities outlook: 2020’s seasonal kick, stalled
54
Equi ty ou t loo k: Keep
t he
f ai th
58
Ec onomi c and
m arke t for e c a sts
60
Commodi ty pri c e
fo re c a sts
62
3m/3m annualised
Average (1980-)
Monthly
Ric Deverell +61 2 8232 4307 ric.deverell@macquarie.com Hayden Skilling, CFA +61 2 8232 2623 hayden.skilling@macquarie.com Global economic outlook: Peering through the coronavirus fog Th e
global
e c onomy f ini s hed
2019
on
a
wea k no te, wi th GDP growth
s lowing
t o
1¾ %
s aar in
Q4, among
t he
wea k e st qua rters s in c e
2009 , and
down
f rom 2 ¼ %
s aar in
Q3. As ha s been
t he
c a s e for m u c h
o f th e
pa st tw o
y ears , th e
wea k ne ss wa s c on c en trate d
in
t he
m anu f a ctur ing
and
e xte rnal s e ct ors , where
th e
t rade
war weighed
m o st hea v il y, wi th global
indu stri al
produ cti on
f alling
b y an annuali s ed
1% . Howe v e r, while
t he
t rade-dri v en
un c e rta in ty al s o
weighed
on
bu s ine ss in v e stm en t, th e
US
da ta poin t ed
t o
earl y s ign s o f st abili s a ti on . M oreo v er , c on s ump ti on
gro wt h
remained rela tiv el y r e s ilien t in
m o st o f th e
m ajor e c onomie s. W e
e x pe cte d
ta ri ff in c rea s e s in
Sep tem ber 2019
to hi t a ctiv i ty in
Q4. However , i t i s in te re sti ng th a t th e
US
and
China
were
s howing
earl y s ign s o f r e c o v ery , with
t he
wea k ne ss c on c en trat ed in
Europe
and
J apan . Fig 1
Global indu stria l produ c tion f e ll by a n a nnu a li se d 1% in Q4, its w eakest qua rter
s inc e
2011 …
%
Global Industrial Production Growth Fig 2
…with th e
wea k n ess
driv e n b y
Europ e
a nd Ja pan – the US
a nd Chin a
w ere
s howing early
s igns o f rec ov ery
IP Growth 10
%
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
3m/3m
annualised
-4
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
-6
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Source: Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy Source: Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy
We had
for s ome
t ime
e x pe cte d
Q4 to be
t he
low
poin t for t hi s cyc le , with
a
m ode st bu t broad- ba s ed
re c o v ery e x pe ct ed
t o
begin
in Q1, supported by accommodative monetary policy, the “trade truce” and the end of the destocking cycle (s ee
our 2020
Glo bal
Ec onomi c and
M arke t O u tl oo k). O ur con f iden c e
in
a
Q1 rebound
wa s helped
b y de v elopmen ts in
J apan , where
th e
2014 e x perien c e
s ugge st ed
t ha t G D P would
r ebound
f rom the
s harp
VAT- hi k e
indu c ed
f all
in
Q4. Fig 3
Th e
PMI s /ISM fo r
Ja nua ry
s ugge st that production had starte d to re bound following the in ve nto ry
rundown Index
Global Manufacturing PMIs Fig 4
Thi s
p rocess
s hould be a id e d by a
re bound in Ja pan, whe re
the i m pa ct from
th e
VAT hik e
i s
lik e ly to be t em po rary
Japan Retail Trade & Consumption Nominal,
3m/3m
annualised
grow
th
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
48
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Source: IHS Markit, Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy Source: Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy
Th e
good
news
i s th a t t he
J anuary da t a
f or the
first tim e
s howed
c lear e v iden c e
th a t t hi s pro c e ss was
underway , wi th th e
PMI/ISM s urve ys (bo th m anu f a ct uring
and
s ervi c e s) beginning
to rebound . Consumption
Retail
trade
US
&
China
Global
ex-US
&
China
Based
on US
ISM
and China
NBS
Markit
(inc.
for US
and
China)
%
Quarterly
annualised
Year-ended
2020Q1
IP,
3m
annualised grow
th
(RHS)
MCBCI
(LHS)
Th e
b a d n e w s
i s
th at th e
rec ov ery
will be pu t on hold in Q 1 , a s t he
global
e c onomy i s hi t b y th e ou tb rea k o f th e
c orona v iru s ( C OVID- 19 ). At th i s sta ge , for e c a st ing
th e
ul tim a te ou tc ome
in v ol v e s m ore
gue ss work than
sc ien c e . Howeve r, notwi thsta nding
t he
la ck o f e v iden c e
f or a
f u rth er North
At lan tic s lowdown
t hrough
t o
end
F ebruary , w e
s usp ect glob a l G DP
growth will s low by a
full pe rce ntage poin t in Q 1 , to s o met hing lik e
¾ %
saar .
China under pressure… In China , bo th th e
s pread
o f t he
c orona virus and the government’s response have been far larger th an
s een
during
SARS ba ck in
2003 , s ugge st ing
th a t G DP
i s li k el y to c on tract in Q 1
– the first tim e
s in ce
the NBS
began publishing qu arterly
G DP
dat a , dating ba ck
to 1992
(we
s u s pe ct th a t i t al s o
c on tr a ct ed
during
t he
grea t re c e ss ion , bu t t he
au th ori ti e s did
no t prin t i t). During
SARS, a
global
tota l
o f 8 ,0 96
people
were
in f e cte d
wi th 774
f a ta li ti e s ( 5 ,3 27
and
349
in mainland
China ).
In
c ompari s on ,
th e
c orona v iru s
ha s
alread y
in fect ed
~ 82 , 000
people ,
with 2, 804
fata li t ie s ( ~78 , 500
and
2, 747
in
m ainland
China ). The government’s efforts to quarantine the virus have already had a very large impact on Chinese ou tp u t wi th high- fr equen cy indi c a tors s ugge sti ng
th a t bo th demand
and
produ cti on
have
been
hi t hea v il y.o
In du stri al
a ctiv i ty loo ks t o
be
down
drama tic all y in
F ebruary : th e
M CBC I fe ll
m a ter iall y, and we
s u s pe ct th i s fa ll
i s unders t a ti ng
t he
wea k ne ss gi v en
i ts foc u s on
t he
st eel
s e ctor. Fig 5
Our ass umption i s
th at Chine se
GDP will fa ll s lightl y in 2020 Q 1 , bu t ca li bra tion of th e
ma gnitud e
i s
difficult Fig 6
Th e
M CB CI f e ll in F e brua ry,
after
ha v ing rec o vere d through l ate
2019
%
China
Real
GDP
Growth
10
8
6
Index
MCBCI
&
IP
Growth
52.5
52.0
51.5
51.0
% 8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
4
50.5
6.0
50.0
2
49.5
0
49.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
-2
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
48.5
16
17
18
19
20
4.0
Source: Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy Source: Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy
o
Dail y c oal
c on s ump t ion
i s c urren tly down
33%
f rom t he
le v el
s een
a t th i s t ime
la st y ear , wi t h limi te d
e v iden c e
t ha t th e
normal
pi ck- up
po st Chine s e
New
Y ear i s underwa y. We did
no t ha v e
Chine s e
PMIs ba ck in
2003 . Howe v er , indu st rial
produ ct ion
onl y f ell
for one
m on th ( partly due
to i ts higher growth
pa th), e ss en ti all y r emaining
fl a t between
M arch and
April , s ugge sti ng
t he
hi t in
2020
will
be
m a ter iall y bigge r. Con s ump ti on
growth
i s al s o
li k el y t o
ha v e
been
impa cte d , wi t h
ane c do tes s ugge st ing
th a t m o st depa rt men t st ore s ha v e
been
e ss en ti all y emp ty in
re c en t wee ks, while
Chine s e
c ar sale s were down
around
90%
in
t he
f irs t t hree
wee ks o f F ebruary compared
t o
s ale s la st y ear . Perhap s m o st s igni f i c an tly, th e
c urren t s hu td own
i s ha v ing
a
pronoun c ed
impa ct on
th e
prope rty marke t, with
s ale s sti ll
down
57%
c ompared
to th i s tim e
la st y ea r. In c on trast, a cc ording
to th e o ff i c ial
da t a , prope rty s ale s were
in
t he
m ain
una ff e cte d
ba ck in
2003 .o
G i v en
th e
importan c e
o f hou s ing
t o
t he
Chine s e
e c onomy , prope rty wea k ne ss c ould
ha v e
a ma ter ial
impa ct on
o v erall
demand .
Fig 7
Chin ese
car
sa le s
were
down dra ma tic a ll y
in the first thre e
wee ks
o f F e brua ry
Fig 8
Prop erty
sa le s
h ave
only ti cke d up m ode s tl y c ompa re d to th e
n orma l po st- Chin ese
Ne w Y ear
rebound China
Passenger
Car
Sales
Rolling
four-week
average
of
daily
sales
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
"000
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
China
Daily
Property
Sales
Square
metres
0
15
16
17
18
19
20
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
Days
since
beginning
of
CNY
holiday
Source: Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy Source: Wind, Macquarie Macro Strategy
Whil e
th e
ne ar-term
hi t i s
li ke ly to be very
large, our w ork ing ass umption rema in s
that the impa ct on Chin ese
grow t h will be s ho rt
a nd s h a rp (broadl y
following th e
pa tte rn in 2003) , with a
rebound
li k el y in
Q 2
a s indu stri al
a ct i v i ty s lowl y re s ume s. O n c e
again , however , i t i s to o
earl y to draw
stro ng
c on c lu s ion s, wi th th e
ul tim a te impa ct a
fu n cti on
o f bo t h
th e
tr aje ctory o f th e
s pread
in c oming
wee ks/ mon t h s and
th e
Chine s e
go v ernmen t’s re s pon s e
(no ti ng
th a t m u c h
o f th e
impa ct i s due
to e ff o rts to sto p
th e
s pread ). Wh ile
th e
s pread
i s an
order o f m agni tu de
bigger wi th in
m ainland
China
th an
in
2003 , s o
far, th e dail y percen ta ge
c hange
ha s s lowed
a t a
pa c e
s imilar to 2003 , with the a bsolu te
dail y
in crease in infe ct ions pe ak ing on 4
F e brua ry
(a b se nt the rec la ss ific a tion), o ver
thre e
w eeks
a go. O ne
m ajor di ff eren c e
th i s tim e
around
i s th e
geographi c al
s pread , with
th e
v iru s ini t iall y largel y c on t ained
in
China , with
Hu...