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T able
o f
con t en t s
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Abbr e via tions
05
Ex ecutiv e
summar y
07
G20
R ecommenda tions
10
In tr oduction
15
Curr en t
S t atus
18
R ene w able
t echnology
and
c arbon
r eduction
outlook
26
Socio-economic
foo tprin t
of
the
G20
ener gy
tr ansition
49
4.1 Ener gy
s ect or
and
r ene w able
ener gy
jobs
in
the
G20
4.2 Gross
domes tic
pr oduct
in
G20
4.3 W elf ar e
in
the
G20
Barriers
t o
the
deplo ymen t
of
r ene w able
ener gy
59
Enabling
policies
62
R e f er ences
69
Figur e
1.
E v olution
o f
L COE
cos t s
f or
solar
P V
and
wind
onshor e
(20 10-
20 19)
20
Figur e
2. E v olution
o f
r ene w able
ener gy
in
the
po w er
s ect or
(20 10-
20 17 / 20 18/ 20 19)
21
Figur e
3.
E v olution
o f
electrific a tion
o f
end-us e
s ect or s
22
Figur e
4.
K e y
driv er s
f or
the
ener gy
tr ans f orma tion
2 9
Figur e
5.
Annual
ener gy-r ela t ed
CO 2
emissions
and
mitigation
con tributions
b y
t echnology
in
the
Ba s eline
Ener gy
Scenario ,
the
Planned
Ener gy
Scenario
and
the
T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario
(20 10- 2050 )
30
Figur e
6 .
T he
glob al
ener gy
supply
mus t become
mor e
e fficien t and
mor e
r ene w able
31
Figur e
7 .
Br eak down
o f
electricity
gener a tion
and
t o t al
ins t alled
c ap a city
b y
s our ce ,
20 17 - 2050
32
Figur e
8.
Electricity
becomes
the
main
ener gy
c arrier
in
ener gy
consump tion
b y
2050
33
Figur e
9 .
P o w er
s ect or
k e y
indica t or s
34
Figur e
10 .
VRE
shar e
in
gener a tion
and
c ap a city ,
s t or a ge
t echnologies
35
Figur e
11.
Pr ogr ess
tha t is
needed
f or
k e y
indica t or s
t o
a chieve
the
T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario
39
Figur e
12.
Cumulativ e
ener gy
s ect or
in v es tmen t s
o ver
the
period
t o
2050
under
the
Planned
Ener gy
Scenario
and
the
T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario
40 Figur e
13.
Cumulativ e
s y s t em
cos t s
and
savings
from
r educed
e x t ernalities
f or
the
T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario
f or
the
period
t o
2050
(U SD
trillion)
4 1
Figur e
14a .
R emaining
ener gy
and
pr ocess -r ela t ed
CO 2
emissions
in
the
T r ans f orming
Ener gy Scenario
and
Deeper
Dec arbonis a tion
P er spectiv e
“z er o ”
t o
r educe
ener gy
and
pr ocess
emissions
t o
z er o
la t es t b y
2060 (G tCO 2 )
42
Figur e
14b .
R emaining
ener gy
and
pr ocess -r ela t ed
CO 2
emissions
in
the
T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario
and
Deeper
Dec arbonis a tion
P er spectiv e
“z er o ”
t o
r educe
ener gy
and
pr ocess
emissions
t o
z er o
la t es t b y
2060 (G tCO 2 )
43
Figur es
Figur e
15.
Cumulativ e
cos t s
and
savings
f or
the
Deeper
Dec arbonis a tion
P er spectiv e
“z er o ”,
20 20-2050
( TE S ),
20 20- 2060 (DDP)
( trillion
U SD20 15)
44
Figur e
16 .
Mitigation
cos t s
f or
s elect
t echnologies
and
gr oupings,
2050
45
Figur e
17 .
Es timating
the
s ocio-economic
f oo tprin t o f
tr ansition
r o a dmaps
50
Figur e
18.
E v olution
o f
ener gy
s ect or
jobs,
b y
t echnology ,
under
the
Planned
Ener gy
Scenario
and
the
T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario
from
20 17
t o
2030
and
2050
51
Figur e
19 .
Diff er ence
o f
ener gy
s ect or
jobs,
b y
t echnology ,
in
2050
be t w een
the
Planned
Ener gy
Scenario
and
the
T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario .
T o t al
G20
v alues
and
dis tribution
within
G20
52
Figur e
20 .
E v olution
o f
r ene w able
ener gy
jobs,
b y
t echnology ,
under
the
Planned
Ener gy
Scenario
and
the
T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario
from
20 17
t o
2030
and
2050
53
Figur e
2 1.
Dis tribution
o f
G20
r ene w able
ener gy
jobs
in
2050
under
the
T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario
b y
t echnology
and
s egmen t s
o f
v alue
chain
54
Figur e
2 2. Dis tribution
o f
a
subse t o f
G20
r ene w able
ener gy
jobs
in
2050
under
the
T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario
b y
t echnology ,
s egmen t s
o f
v alue
chain
and
occup ational
r equir emen t s
55
Figur e
23.
Dynamic
ev olution
o f
the
driv er s
f or
GDP
cr ea tion
from
the
Planned
Ener gy
Scenario
and
the
T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario
a cr oss
the
20 19
–
2050
period
56
Figur e
24.
A ver a ge
imp a ct
o f
the
driv er s
f or
GDP
cr ea tion
from
the
Planned
Ener gy
Scenario
and
the T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario
during
the
20 19- 2050
period,
and
dis tribution
o f
driv er s ’
imp a ct s
within
the
G20
5 7
Figur e
25.
E v olution
o f
the
W elfar e
inde x
f or
the
G20
under
the
T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario
58
Figur e
26 .
W eigh t ed
a ver a ge
prices
o f
ener gy
r esulting
from
solar
and
wind
auctions,
glob ally
and
in
G20
coun tries,
and
c ap a city
a w ar ded
ea ch
y ear ,
20 1 1- 20 18
64
B ox e s
B o x
1:
IRENA ’ s
s cenarios
and
per spectiv es
27
B ox
2 :
IRENA ’ s
“R ea ching
Z er o
with
R ene w ables
-
Elimina ting
CO 2
Emissions
in
Indus tr y
&
T ranspor t ”
46
Abbr e via tions
B ES CCS CCU CDR CHP CO 2
DDP
EJ EU
E Vs Fi T s G20 GDP GHG
Gt IE A IP CC
IRENA K APS ARC L COE
Ba s eline
Ener gy
Scenario c arbon
c aptur e
and
s t or a ge c arbon
c aptur e
and
utilis a tion c arbon
dioxide
r emo v al combined
hea t and
po w er c arbon
dioxide
Deeper
Dec arbonis a tion
P er spectiv e e x ajoule
Eur opean
Union electric
v ehicles Feed-in
t ariff s Gr oup
o f
T w en ty
gr oss
domes tic
product gr eenhouse
ga s giga t on
In t ernational
Ener gy
A gency In t er go vernmen t al
P anel
f or
Clima t e
Change In t ernational
R ene w able
Ener gy
A gency
King
Abdullah
P e tr oleum
S tudies
and
R esear ch
Cen tr e le v elis ed
cos t o f
electricity
Abbr e via tions
MW
m e g awa tt NDCs
nationally
de t ermined
con tributions
P ES
Planned
Ener gy
Scenario
PV
pho t o v olt aic
R&D
r esear ch
and
de v elopmen t SDG
sus t ainable
de v elopmen t go al
T ES
T r ans f orming
Ener gy
Scenario
TFE C
t o t al
final
ener gy
consump tion
TPE S
t o t al
primar y
ener gy
supply
TS O
tr ansmission
s y s t em
oper a t or
U SD
Unit ed
S t a t es
dollar
VRE
v ariable
r ene w able
ener gy
Ex ecutiv e
Summary
T he
health,
humanit arian,
social
and
economic
cris es
s e t o ff
b y
the
CO VID- 19
p andemic
ha ve been
unpr eceden t ed
with
wide-r anging
imp a ct s
on
s ocie ties
ar ound
the
w orld
and
thus
r equir e
a decisiv e ,
lar ge-s c ale
respons e
guided
b y
appr opria t e
social
and
economic
mea sur es.
Ho w ever ,
as coun tries
consider
their
economic
stimulus
op tions,
they
should
no t los e
sigh t o f
the
need
t o
mee t the
glob al
clima t e
and
sus t ainability
objectiv es
thr ough
the
dec arbonis a tion
o f
our
s ocie ties.
R ene w able
ener gy
s olutions
pr o vide
clean,
r eliable ,
cos t -e ff ective
and
eas y - t o-mobilis e ener gy
f or
diff er en t
s er vices,
including
ess en tial
ones,
such
as
healthc ar e ,
w a t er
and
food supply .
T hes e
char a ct eris tic s
mak e
r ene w able
ener gy
t echnologies
decisiv e
in
the
immedia t e respons e
t o
CO VID- 19 .
While
als o
reducing
glob al
clima t e-changing
emissions,
r ene w able
ener gy
t echnologies
could
pla y
a
k e y
r ole
in
the
economic
r eco ver y
from
the
p andemic,
ensuring sus t ainability
and
ener gy
s ecurity ,
cr ea ting
jobs
and
s tr engthening
r esilience
t o
pro t ect
and impr o ve
people ’ s
health
and
w elfar e .
R ene w able
ener gy
t echnologies
lie
a t
the
hear t
of
the
ener gy
tr ansition
and
ar e
k e y
f or the
cr ea tion
o f
ener gy
s y s t ems
tha t guar an t ee
a
s ecur e
and
a ff or dable
ener gy
supply
f or
all people ,
and
a t the
s ame
time
pro t ect
the
en vir onmen t and
the
clima t e .
IRENA ’ s
analy sis
sho w s
tha t the
s wif t a dop tion
o f
r ene w able
ener gy
solutions
combined
with
ener gy
e fficiency
s tr a t egies constitut e
sa f e ,
r eliable
and
a ff or dable
p a th w a y s
c ap able
o f
a chie ving
o ver
90%
o f
the
ener gy - r ela t ed
c arbon
dioxide
(CO 2 )
emissions
reductions
r equir ed
t o
mee t nationally
pledged
clima t e
go als.
Curr en tly ,
r ene w able
t echnologies
ar e
alr eady
domina ting
the
global
mark e t
f or
ne w po w er
genera tion
c apacity .
Solar
P V
and
wind
ar e
incr easingly
cos t -compe titiv e
and
a ff or dable s our ces
o f
electricity
in
man y
mark e t s,
and
mos t r ene w able
po w er
s our ces
will
be
fully
cos t compe titiv e
within
the
ne x t dec a de .
R ene w able
po w er
gener a tion
is
no w
gr o wing
f as t er
than o ver all
po w er
demand
and
man y
inno v ativ e
solutions
ar e
curr en tly
being
de v eloped
t o
mak e
the
po w er
s y s t em
and
grids
mor e
flexible ,
allo wing
f or
higher
and
mor e
cos t -e ff ectiv e
us e
and pene tr a tion
o f
r ene w ables.
Dis tribut ed
ener gy
r es our ces,
such
as
r oo f t op
solar
P V ,
behind-the- me t er
b a tt eries
and
electric
v ehicles
(EVs ),
ar e
emer ging
as
pr omising
solutions
f or
impr o v ed r es our ce
e fficiency ,
incr eas ed
flexibility
and
be tt er
planning
b y
grid
oper a t or s.
T he
v ariability
o f r ene w able
ener gy
gener a tion
c an
be
o ver come
with
k e y
enabling
t echnologies,
such
as
utility - s c ale
b a tt er y
s olutions,
hea t pumps
and
smar t grids,
all
o f
which
ar e
experiencing
r apid
gr o w th
and reductions
in
cos t s.
Indeed,
a
po w er
s y s t em
domina t ed
b y
r ene w ables
c an
be
a
r ealit y ,
and
the
s c ale
and
speed o f
r ene w able
ener gy
d...