下面是小编为大家整理的美国电气设备与多产业：低谷可能已经过去，但资本支出计划到2021年仍是关键关注项目,供大家参考。
G l o b al R e sear c h
6
A u g u st 2020
U S
E l ec tr i c al
Eq uipme nt
&
Mu l ti - I nd us tr y N avi g ati n g
US
EEM I
i n to
2H :
tr ou g h
lik e ly
be h i n d u s ,
bu t
cape x
plan s
i n to
2 0 21
k e y
watch
i tem
2020
t oo
l o w
& 2021
t oo
h i g h ?
L o n g e r- c yc l e
i n ves t m en t/ c ap ex
key w at ch
i t e m M i x ed
s to c k reac ti on s
to
l arg e l y
b etter
th an
ex p ec ted
2 Q
res u l ts
s uppo rt
our c on c er n th at
a
p ath
b ac k to
" no rmal "
s t ill
remai n s
un c l e ar.
Th i s
i s
p arti c u l arl y
th e
c as e
f or l ong er - cyc l e
i n v es tmen t
w h i c h i s
at
ri s k du e
to
th e
h i t
to
earn i ng s / c as h fl o w s
w e" ve
s een
th u s far,
pro l ong e d
c on tai n men t
effo rts
to
c on tro l
th e
s p read
o f
th e
v i ru s
( li nk ) ,
a nd
a po ten ti a ll y
o v erl y
op ti mi s ti c
v iew
on th e
n ear - term
res ho ri ng b en efi ts . US
EEM I
earn i ng s mo men t um ( ba s e d on N T M
c o ns )
i s
now a t
-10 %
y / y — w el l
o ff
th e
Ap ril
l o w s
o f
- 57% . Al th ough
p arti al l y
w arran ted
g i v en
re - s t oc k i ng
a nd
i mpr ov i ng
s hor t
cyc l e
indi ca t or s ( 2nd d eri v ati v e) , w e
th i nk und erl y i ng c ap ex
tre nd s
are
th e
key
w atc h item
fo r th e
s ec to r i n
H 2,
a s
fi rs t
budg et
i nd i ca ti on s
li ke l y
emerg e
i n
Q 3.
N o te
th at
c ap ex
ty p i c al l y c on tri bu te s
~50 %
to
US
EEM I
org an i c
gro w t h.
So
w h il e
l ead i ng
i nd i c ato rs
s ugg es t
a po s i ti ve
( i . e. ,
l e ss
n eg ati v e)
tren d
i n
I P
gro w th ,
w e
s ti ll
s ee
a
ri s k
th at
l ong er - cycle i n v es tmen t
c ou l d
take
l ong er
to
rec o v er,
l ea d i ng
to
to ugh
c omp s
i n
1 H2 1
fo r
th o s e ex po s u re s , req u iri ng a
h i gh l y
s el ec ti ve
ap pro ac h to
th e
s ec to r. C han g e s
t o
o u r
e st i ma t e s
and
p r ice
t a r g e t s
W e
li ke
po c kets
o f
res ili en ce
( e. g., s tatu to ry
/ man d ated
s erv i c es
i n fi re
& s ec u rity )
s o me of
w hi c h w e r e
i m pa c t e d by
buildi ng acce ss
r e s t r i c t i ons
i n Q 2 but s h oul d do be tt e r now th at
acc es s
op en s
up
( CAR R ,
JCI ,
APG ,
AO S,
SPX C
–
al l
B u y
rated ) .
W e
al s o
fav or i mpro v i ng fu nd amen tal s
w i th
s tro ng b a l an ce
s h eets
( I TT)
an d remai n s i gn i fi ca nt l y
a bov e " 21 c ons e n s us
on S t a nl ey
( S W K )
on both s a l e s
( ~ 5% )
& EPS
( ~ 10% ) . W e
li k e
G E
on a 12 mon th
b a s i s
bu t
real i ze
th at
av iati on s e n ti m en t
do mi n ates
n ear
term.
W e
do b e li eve , ho w ev er,
th at
c u rren t
en g i n e
g reen
ti me
op ti mi z ati on c ou l d l ead
to
a
" ru s h "
f or s hop v i s i t
book i ng s
i nt o
2021/22
gi ve n
r e duc e d
ca pa c i t i e s .
W e
r e m a i n
ca ut i ous
on
MMM ( w eaker
gro w th , PF AS
o v erhan g )
an d SITE
( 10 %+
s al es
CAG R
li kel y
p ri c ed
i n ) , bo t h Sel l rated . O n HON
w e
s ee
a
b al a n c ed
ri s k/ rew ard
g i v en
e nd m arket
mi x
& v al u ati on. O n av erag e,
our
n ew
2020/2021
EPS
fo rec as ts
i n crease
b y
6.3 %/ 4.5 % ,
p ri ma ril y
du e
to margi n s , w i th
s al es
fo rec as ts
up ~1.5 %/ 1.0 %.
F i g u r e
1 :
US
EEM I
–
C han g e s
t o
P r ice
T a r g e t s
and
R a t i n g s
( U B S e )
Mar ku s
Mi tt er m ai er
A na l ys t m a rk us .mi tt e rm a i e r @ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
2716
D am i an
K ar as,
CFA A na l ys t da mi a n.k a r a s@ ubs .com
+1 -212-713
2267
N eal
B u r k Assoc i a t e
An a l y st ne a l.burk @ ubs .co m
+1 -212-713
4066
N i ch o l as
A m i cu cci ,
CFA ,
C PA
Assoc i a t e
An a l y st ni chol a s .a mi cucci @ ubs .com
+1 -212-882
5036
T i c k er P rice
Old
PT N e w
PT Upside / Downside
Rating
S ell
Neutra l
Buy
Comment
AOS
48.0
54
54
1 2%
B uy NA relatively insulated fro m
COVID-1 9,
China set
to
inflect
APG
14.5
15
15
4 %
B uy Secu lar growth
exposure +
ro ll up
=
co mp ellin g
LT
earnin gs
story CARR
28.1
26
32
1 4%
B uy Stability in
F&S
earn in gs,
potential
asset
sales
CGNX
68.6
64
64
-7 %
Neu tral
Stro ng
B / S;
expect weakn ess
in
Au to s,
Logistics
sho uld
remain stro ng;
valu ation
stretched CR
58.8
70
70
1 9%
B uy
Macro concerns allow
for
attractive entry point;
up side
from
Curren cy
bu siness;
cost actions help offset
h eadwin ds ETN
96.3
95
105
9 %
B uy Cash / margin growth
from
d ispo sals
(lighting,
hydraulics, etc.) an d
Electrical
busin ess
closing gap with
EU
peers
EMR
64.7
62
64
-1 %
Neu tral
Project
d elays
on
macro p ressures,
w/ PLC
up side
LT
GTES
11.8
12
12
2 %
Neu tral
Top -lin e
headwinds fro m
slo wing
Glob al
IP
an d
declin e
in
au to
production
estimates GE
6.4
8.5
8.5
3 3%
B uy Mu lti-year turnaround
with
FCF
inflection
over n ext 2-3
years,
near-term risks
in
aviation and energy en d
markets. HON
150.8
144
144
-5 %
Neu tral
R isks
in
aviation (particularly aftermarket) an d
energ y
end markets; stro ng
B / S,
repositionin g,
PP&E
sales
are
po sitive. IR
32.9
31
34
3 %
Neu tral
Positive
on
recent sp in
an d
mgmt
execu tio n;
monitoring
P&ST
gro wth
over th e
near term
ITT
59.7
68
68
1 4%
B uy Stro ng
B / S;
likely share
g ainer in
Frictio n
w/ ab ility
to
drive notab le
margin impro vemen t
o ver
the
med ium/long-term JCI
38.3
39
43
1 2%
B uy Trading >1
std dev below
rel. avg, resilien t
F&S
bu siness
LII
273.3
235
235
-14 %
Neu tral
~ LSD
gro wth
priced in;
b eing a
smaller US
Resi /Comm"l
Unitary concentrated HVAC sup po rts h igher valuatio n
flo or MMM
155.4
138
138
-11 %
Sell
Very
macro -d riven g rowth
&
p ast
und erperforman ce
means
COVID-19 a
key risk; resp irators p rovide 3%+
up lift PNR
43.6
37
45
3 %
Neu tral
Opp ortunity
to
impro ve
2/3
o f
its p ortfo lio;
management n eeds
to
regain credibility with
better
execu tion
R O K
223.9
209
220
-2 %
Neu tral
Lo wer
capex
and oil
p rices
are
head wind s;
po sitive
on
automation
as
secular
trend
rather th an sho rt-term
driver SITE
121.8
90
90
-26 %
Sell
Lead er in
~$ 20B land scape
su pp ly
d istribu to r
market,
bu t
1 0%+
sales
CAGR
no w
priced in
SPXC
42.4
50
50
1 8%
B uy Earning s
stability, healthy B / S,
and ongoing
po rtfolio
transformation
SWK
157.3
170
173
1 0%
B uy Portfo lio
evolution,
resh oring
benefits, and stron g
DIY
trend s,
co up led with
margins resiliency
an d
cost ou t
in itiatives TT
115.2
95
114
-1 %
Neu tral
Decremen tal
margins in
"2 0
outweigh
incremen tal
in
"21
S our ce :
U B S . P r i ce d a s
o f
8/5/2020
www .u b s.co m / i nvestm ent r esea r ch
Th i s
rep o rt
h as
b een
p repared
b y
UB S
Se c u ri ti es
LLC .
ANALYS T
C E R T I F IC AT I O N
AND
R E Q UI R E D
DIS C L O S UR E S
B E G I N
O N PA G E
110 .
U B S
do e s
an d s eeks
to
do bu s i n es s
w i th
c omp a n i es
c o v ered
i n i ts
res earc h re po rts . As
a
re s u l t,
i n v es to r s
s hou l d b e aw are
th at
th e
fi rm may
h ave
a
c on fl i c t
o f
i n teres t
th at
c ou l d affec t
th e
ob j ec ti v ity
o f
t h i s
rep o rt.
I n ve s to rs
s hou l d c on s i d er
th i s rep o rt
as
on l y
a
s i ng l e
fac to r i n maki ng th ei r i n v es tmen t
d ec i s i on. I ndu stri a l
Am er i cas
Equit ies
Cont e n t s
2Q Result s and
G uidanc e
................................................ 3
Capex Could Take
L on ger
t o
Rec o ver
.................................. 5
Cons ens us
Evolution
...................................................... 7
W hat "s
D r iving
Per f or m anc e
& V aluat ion?
........................... 9
Ref r am ing
Relative
V aluation of
U S
EEMI
St oc ks
................. 11
Mar ket
Cor r ec t ion in
Per s pect ive
..................................... 12
Cur r ent
Sell off
vs
G F C
Peak,
Tr ough,
and
Rebound
............... 13
HVAC
Upd a te
............................................................ 15
Es t imat e
Ch anges
....................................................... 16
A. O . S m i t h (B u y , $54 P T)
........................................................................... 20 A P i
G roup ( Bu y , $15)
................................................................................ 22 C a rr i e r G l o bal
( Buy , $32 P T
- w a s
$ 26)
...................................................... 25 C ogne x
( N e ut r a l , $64 P T)
.......................................................................... 31 C r a n e
( Buy , $70 P T)
.................................................................................. 35 E a t on ( Bu y , $105 P T
- w a s
$95)
................................................................ 37 E M R
( N e u t r a l , $64 P T
- w a s
$62)
............................................................... 44 G a t e s
I ndus t r i a l
C orp P l c
( N e ut r a l , $12 P T)
................................................ 47 G e n e r a l
E le c t r i c
(B u y,
$8.5 P T)
.................................................................... 49 H one y w e ll
( N e ut r a l , $144 P T)
.................................................................... 55 I nge r s ol l - R an d ( N eu t r al , $34 PT
- w a s
$31 )
................................................ 59 I TT
( Buy , $68 P T)
....................................................................................... 63 J ohn s on C on t r ol s
( Buy , $43 P T
- $39)
........................................................ 65 L e nn ox
( N e ut r a l , $235 P T)
...........................................................